The economy is in shambles. The jobless rate (including those who have given up the job hunt in desperation) is at or above 10%, and the only thing in people's mind is how deep and how long this recession will be. In the meantime the banks are still holding tight to their dollars that they'd otherwise loan to other banks, so that they in turn could release it to the developers who are our clients. At the office we're tightening our belts, watching every penny that goes out the door, and chasing projects that a couple of years ago we were too busy to pursue.
On the other hand, I see light at the end of the tunnel. I have a feeling that when things pick up again in the economy, as they inevitably do, our future will be different. The process of designing and building with which we're all familiar with will begin to change drastically. The light I see at the end of a tunnel belongs to a locomotive, pulling what for now is a small but powerful train, and those who don't jump on board will be left behind. There are three major things that will impact how we do business. One is the the relationship of our buildings and the environment. the second is the actual process of design, last but not least are the methods and materials that make our designs reality.
Already, environmentally speaking, there are changes happening. Many municipalities, school districts, corporate clients and small independent clients of all types are establishing requirements for LEED certification for their buildings, or at the very least compliance with competing green-building programs. There was a time when green building was associated with liberal, hippie causes; nowadays our capitalist economy is quickly recognizing that green building is good for a few reasons that affect the bottom line through substantial returns on the investment. The first is that green building practice cuts energy consumption and maintenance costs, providing a quantifiable, direct, long-term ROI. The second is that an environmentally conscious building is a healthier building, cutting down absenteeism and sick days as well as making the buildings more humane places to inhabit, resulting in a less direct yet substantial ROI. Also consumers are willing to pay more rent or a higher mortgage for a green building, particularly if it has the LEED plaque on the wall. In recognition of this, we are starting to see green building practices finding their way into the code books and city ordinances, so at some point it won't be a matter of choice.
The way we design things is also starting to undergo substantial changes. The last 20 years saw us quickly go from paper and pencil to systems drafting (remember mylar and register bars?) to computer aided design and drafting. At that point development of our way of doing things pretty much ceased. Sure, the CADD programs developed into the complicated systems that we have now, but the vast majority of architects and engineers continue to use the computer only as a kind of glorified paper and pencil, in fact the unwieldily layering system we all use today is but a child of systems drafting. Essentially we still draft the same way we did 20 years ago, but without the lead stains on our cuffs. The change already on the way has to do with a quantum leap in the way we use the computer. Already there are many companies using exclusively a variety of computer aided design program that allows a structure to be built in virtual reality, where the computer is finally used to its capacity. With these programs we have the capability of building in virtual space the ideas in our mind before the contractor gets it. This allows us to be more creative because we will be able to explain our ideas in a virtual world in a way that can be understood by our clients and the users of the building, not just in aesthetic terms but in ways that have a more direct effect on our clients; the way the building performs, the costs, the codes, etc. It will be difficult for a critic to say "that can't be built" or "that will cost too much". Relatively simple plug-in programs will allow us to quickly and efficiently check for code compliance, LEED certification, and cost estimation. Bidders will be able to quickly produce accurate bids, reducing change orders, RFIs, and finger-pointing. When the buildingn is built the process will continue using the same software in the form of building systems management, energy management, maintenance, etc. One of our engineering consultants is studying a way for one of these new programs to generate structural forces diagrams that will tremendously cut down on the time, tediousness and innacuracies of traditional structural engineering, freeing the engineer to solve the more creative aspects of his profession.
Lastly, the way we build these days is pretty much the way things were built for the last few hundred years, with the only exception that it's gotten more complicated. In the last 40 years we sent a man to the moon, developed a successful personal jet-wing, palm-size computers, credit card size cell phones, etc., how come we're still building the majority of our structures stick-by-stick or brick-by-brick? The building industry appears to be one of the last to embrace the manufacturing processes adapted by most other industries decades ago, and is tremendously slow to accept innovation in materials. We need to explore and take advantage of the advances in manufacturing in terms of automation and quality control, well as the capabilities of current materials. It is unquestionable that this will allow us to build more interesting forms, for less cost and less time.
More than ever we have the ability to design and build intelligent buildings free from the constraints of antiquated crafts, buildings that are responsive and responsible to the environment, buildings that are modifiable to our changing needs. It's up to us to take advantage of the current lull to prepare for the inevitable quantum leap aboard the train... or risk being left behind collecting dust among the old mechanical pencils and electric erasers.
